Thursday, January 27, 2011

Will we see our properties appreciate the year?

In an email question posted on the website, do you think we will see our properties appreciate in the new year? If you are to believe some of the reports and forecasts, property appreciation is expected in about 40 percent of the major metropolitan areas in the country.
Places like Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Iowa, and few others in the Midwest, you will probably have happy days ahead in terms of appreciation. However, places like Florida and Nevada will still continue to see the greatest depreciation.  As I tell people all the time; "Florida lead the nation in increases between 04 & 06. That is why we are now having the biggest decreases". It's a leveling off. In 04 - 06 people were paying Artificially Inflated prices for property In Florida; we are now down to 1999 prices.
No one has a crystal ball of what will really happen in real estate in 2011. However, I'm seeing a lot more reports and predictions that there will be flat growth in real estate values. A few have even boldly said depreciation could continue by as much as 5 percent before bottoming out. And some say we are to expect as much as 15% here in Florida.
Don't freak out by this potentially bad news. You could ask this question to 5 different encomiasts and get 3 different answers. Add in the point that our market is changing every day and you really need to do your homework and watch the trends and really see what is happening at any given point in the year.
Paul Antonelli
www.ThatShortSaleGuy.com
www.OwnAHomeInCentralFL.com
www.CentralFloridaRealEstateShow.com

Friday, January 21, 2011

Proposed Real Estate Tax

Will you ever sell your house?
from guest blogger, Fred Buse, REO Expert

Did you know that if you sell your house after 2012 you will pay a 3.8% sales tax on it?
That's $3,800 on a $100,000 home etc.

When did this happen? It's in the health care bill. Just thought you should know.

SALES TAX TO GO INTO EFFECT 2013 (Part of HC Bill) 
Why 2013? Could it be to come to light AFTER the 2012 elections?

Under the new health care bill - did you know that all real estate transactions will be subject to a 3.8% Sales Tax? The bulk of these new taxes don't kick in until 2013 If you sell your $400,000 home, there will be a $15,200 tax. This bill is set to screw the retiring generation who often downsize their homes. Does this stuff make your November 2012 vote more important?

Oh, you weren't aware this was in the obamacare bill? Guess what, you aren't alone. There are more than a few members of Congress that aren't aware of it either
http://www.gop.gov/blog/10/04/08/obamacare-flatlines-obamacare-taxes-home
  
Why am I telling you this? The same reason I hope you forward this to every single person in your address book. VOTERS NEED TO KNOW. 

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Housing Market Recovery?

The million dollar question is has the U.S. housing market hit rock bottom yet or not? While there are no sure shot answers to that question, all the economic indicators seem to predict that the market would start crawling upwards this year.

According to Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage buyer, home prices would probably start going up in the third quarter of 2011 and rise 0.6 percent for the year, which is the first annual increase since 2006. Also, based on the median forecast of 30 economists at a symposium of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago last month, the real residential investment, which is an inflation-adjusted measure of homebuilding, will increase 9.6 percent in 2011 after five years of declines to a record level.

Housing demand, which is another key indicator of this segment’s health, is considered to have a good chance of stabilizing this year, albeit not at a consequential level. But considering that it had plunged last year, this is certainly good news. Also, according to estimates made by the National Association of Realtors and the Mortgage Bankers Association, construction and home sales will rise in every quarter of 2011.

Experts caution however, that it is too early to rejoice because this predicted uptick is anemic at best and it is not going to give any significant boost to the economy or cause a sustainable turnaround because we are coming off 50-year lows and we continue to deal with the foreclosure fiasco.

Just last week, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court upheld a judge’s decision that two foreclosures were invalid because the mortgages were improperly transferred between securities. Are these just two isolated cases or are they the proverbial tip of the iceberg? Only time will tell.

If unemployment keeps improving and if the economy continues on its slow path to recovery, the gains in jobs and income will increase the pool of qualified home buyers and this may slowly bring a measurable turnaround and an eventual recovery in the housing market.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Finally Some Good News For Those That Want A Mortgage

Last month, on average, only about half of all the people that applied for a mortgage actually got approved for one. Just to show that getting a house these days is the easy part, it's getting a mortgage that is the tuff past, or at least it was. Even when you have to sell a home in places in and around the Kissimmee  St. Cloud corridor of Central Florida, where you can now buy a home for between $40K and $150K. People were not qualifying for a mortgage. I can't blame the banks; they simply don't want what happened in 04-06 to happen again.  Here in Florida we lead the nation in increases of property values during that time. Even in my community, prices of the new homes were going up an average of $10K a month. So of course, it's only natural that Florida leads the nation in decreases today. Between 04 and 06 in some areas of Central and South Florida we had over 100% appreciation in home values. Today in most areas it has been between a 40% to 60% drop in values.  Now of course there are three states that have beaten our numbers some months in 2010, but it's not a record that I think anyone really wants top prize for.
Yesterday morning (1/15/11) an announcement came in from our mortgage rep. Colleen Mitchell that Wells Fargo has revamped their Mortgage Policy. When all other banks are raising their mortgage approval guidelines, Wells went the other way.  Stupid move, hell no! Even if only half of the people that could not get a mortgage before applied again and got approved, Wells wins. Not only will Wells win but everyone wins. Think about it, we can sell more homes and get the economy moving again.
We know this has had an effect on business already, because the announcement came mid-morning and by 1pm showing requests on at least a dozen of my listings had multiple requests.  And half of the teams' listings had the same. 
Finally we have something with a positive effect on business in general.  Personally I'm jazzed that this will help all around business and especially those people that have under a 600 credit score that can really buy a home. Yes you read that right, under a 600 credit score. Hey, stuff happens we know it does. I had someone that was approved for a mortgage and was ready to close. The bank ran the credit the week before closing and because she paid a credit card bill one day late she could not qualify anymore. With the Wells new guidelines she would be in that house, if it happened now. There are still some caveats that you will have to talk with your Wells rep about. If you don't have a Wells rep, call Colleen Mitchell. Not only will you be happy you did but so will your clients.
Happy Selling
Paul Antonelli
www.ThatShortSAleGuy.com
Host of www.CentralFloridaRealEstateShow.com

Saturday, January 15, 2011

The Relationship between the Bond Market and Interest Rates

The bond market is a financial market where investors and traders buy and sell debt securities.  The bond market is commonly used to indicate changes in interest rates because bond valuations and interest rates are inversely proportional.

Bond prices go down when interest rates rise, and they go up when interest rates fall. This happens because most bonds are issued with a fixed interest which, while expressed as a percentage at issuance, is set in dollars. When interest rates rise and investors can get higher returns elsewhere, the prices of existing bonds must be adjusted downward to place them at par with new offerings.

Nearly 90% of the $822 billion U.S. bond market is held by institutions like banks, mutual funds and retirement accounts. Only about 10% of the market is help by private citizens. The U.S. is the largest bond market in the world with a 39% of the global share. That’s why the entire world pays very close attention to the U.S. bond market since it can impact global financial markets and economies.

Unlike the volatile stock market, bonds provide an element of stability. However, their values are susceptible to economic changes, the biggest factor being rising interest rates. Fluctuations in interest rates are not a factor if bonds are held through their maturity because investors get the originally promised amount. It only matters if bonds are bought and sold like stocks.

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money. When interest rates fall, corporations and governments rush to borrow so that they can lock in low rates or refinance old higher interest borrowings. This inundates the market with new bonds. When interest rates are high, financial institutions and private investors are reluctant to borrow, which results in slowing down or stopping new bond offers. Because of the interest rate risk, bonds with longer terms are more risky than bonds with shorter terms.
In conclusion, since interest rates and the housing market are like two sides of a coin, it is imperative for real estate professionals to be knowledgeable about the bond market and its implications on the mortgage industry.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

The Relationship between Economic Data and Mortgage Rates

The U.S. federal government releases a plethora of economic data on a daily, weekly, monthly and/or quarterly basis through its various agencies. These data sets provide measurements for evaluating the health of our economy. While it is important for Realtors to keep a pulse on the economy, it is not practical to pore through these massive volumes of dry and boring data. However, an understanding of the following top 10 economic indicators is all it takes to get an accurate picture of the relationship between economic data and mortgage rates.

1. Real GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
The real GDP is the market value of all goods and services produced in the nation during a specific time period. The real GDP is a way to gauge the health and well-being of the economy. This quarterly index indicates how fast profits may grow and the expected return on capital.

2. M2 (Money Supply)
M2 money supply which is released weekly, represents the aggregate total of all money (physical currency, assets, etc.) a country has in circulation. The feds and economists use this weekly and monthly data to predict cyclical economic recessions and recoveries and expected changes in stock prices.

3. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The CPI measures changes in the prices paid for goods and services across 200 item categories by consumers for the specified month. It is the best indicator of inflation.

4. Producer Price Index (PPI)
The PPI is the business-side equivalent to the CPI. It is a group of indexes that measures monthly changes in the selling price of goods and services received by U.S. producers. It is the first inflation measure available in the month.

5. Consumer Confidence Survey
This index which is released on the last Tuesday of each month gauges the public’s confidence about the health of the U.S. economy that reflects the public’s optimism/pessimism and the nation’s mood.

6. Current Employment Statistics (CES)
CES provides monthly data on national employment/unemployment, and wages and earnings data across all non-agricultural industries.

7. Retail Trade Sales and Food Services Sales
This data tracks monthly U.S. retail and food service sales. The data is based on a random sampling of 5,000 retail and food service firms. This index measures consumers’ personal consumption across retail industries.

8. Housing Starts (formally known as New Residential Construction)
This data indicates how many homes were issued building permits, how many housing construction projects were initiated and how many home construction projects were completed in a month. Housing starts are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates.

9. Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales
This data set is the primary source of information on the state of business inventories and business sales. Inventory rates often provide clues about the growth or contraction of the economy.

10. Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index (the S&P 500)
The S&P Index is a market-value-weighted index of 500 publicly owned stocks that are combined into one equity basket. It has become the industry standard and benchmark for the overall performance of the U.S. equity markets.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

5 Real Estate Resolutions for 2011

When it comes to New Year's Resolutions, financial goals like paying off credit cards and doing a better job of saving rank at the very top of most people's lists, right up there with the perennial goal to take off a few pounds. 

But for many Americans, visions of sugarplums had to share mental space this holiday season with visions of home - from buying a new one, to cutting costs in the one they already have.  Whether you rent or you own, here are 5 key real estate resolutions to consider setting for 2011 (plus some pointers on how to fulfill them).

1.  Owners: Accelerate paying your mortgage off.  During the bubble era, many homeowners were comfortable with refinancing ad infinitum, so long as they could afford the payment. It was not unusual for homeowners to refi their mortgages every year, pulling cash out for everything from cars to college tuition. After the burst, homeowners who have witnessed friends and neighbors lose their homes are exhibiting a new level of interest in paying their homes off - all the way off. While some money pundits say the cash is better used by investing it, many homeowners seek the security of owning their homes free and clear sooner than planned, which also saves them thousands and thousands of dollars in interest payments over the life of the loan.

Fortunately for them, there are lots of strategies out there for getting your mortgage paid off ahead of schedule. In 2010, we saw the seeds of a trend of homeowners with upwards of 25 years left to pay on their 30-year mortgages with 6.5% interest rates refinancing those loans into low interest 15-year-fixed mortgages, slashing both their rate and the number of years they have left to pay on their loan nearly in half.  Interest rates trended rapidly upwards in December, but rates on a 15-year-fixed rate loan are still very low - just barely above 4.25 percent - so if you've had your loan for awhile, you can still cut your interest rate significantly by refinancing into a shorter term loan.

If you can't refinance for any reason or you simply would rather not commit to the higher mortgage payment on a shorter term loan, here's a hack you can use to get your existing home loan paid off sooner - effortlessly: pay half the amount of your monthly mortgage payment every two weeks, rather than the full payment once a month. This results in an extra monthly payment per year, and can pay your mortgage off as much as 6 years early!

2.  Renters: Renegotiate your rent. Most resolution-setters looking to save more cash start with cutting out their daily latte and canceling cable.  But housing is your largest expense; saving there can be the equivalent of cutting out dozens of lattes - in one fell swoop.  If you are seeing rents in your building or around town that make yours seem high, or you search Trulia Rentals for your building and find that the rents currently being charged are lower than yours, these are good signs that you might be paying above-market rent.  If that's the case and/or if you see a high number of vacancies in your building, you should have no qualms about contacting your landlord and renegotiating your rent.

To be an effective negotiator, point out the rental "comparables" which are lower than yours, and explain that the rent is too high for you to continue paying at this level; also, point out that you always pay your rent on time and the other ways in which you are a desirable tenant.  Let your landlord know that you would love to stay in the building, but that you can't afford to pay above-market rents when there are so many other units available in the area at a lower cost.  Many landlords would rather discount your rent by $50 or $100 than lose a good, paying tenant at a time when they already have so many units to fill.

3.  Sellers: Create urgency for buyers, and get your home sold.  If your home lingered on the market in 2010, you may need to take the bull by the horns to get it sold in 2011.  Cut your price to a level slightly below the recently sold comparables; even if you've cut the price before, this can create a pricing "sweet spot" where buyers recognize the value and get concerned that such a good deal won't possibly last.  Same with condition - primp and spruce your home so that it shows so much better than the other homes in your area that buyers will see that they feel compelled to leap off the fence. 

Finally, if you've had lots of buyers - or even repeat visits from the same buyers - consider making a reverse offer to the buyers who have shown an interest but not yet made an offer.  With a reverse offer, the seller actually puts together a written offer to sell to the buyers, usually at a price or on terms that are more favorable than the property was listed with.  And a smart reverse offer has a pretty short shelf life - by making it expire within a day or two after issuing it, you create a level of urgency not seen since the tax credit was about to expire!

4.  Buyers: Qualify for a mortgage to buy a home.  Many would-be buyers have mentally disqualified themselves, despite the great economic climate for buying a home, because they have heard it is so difficult to get a mortgage.  The fact is, with a 620 credit score and a 3.5 percent down payment (plus closing costs, in some cases), an FHA loan can finance the purchase of your home.  Start with the basics - pull your credit reports from AnnualCreditReport.com and check them for errors, following the instructions to dispute any inaccurate information that might drag your score down.  Then, get referrals to a local mortgage broker who can pull your credit score - the same ones the banks will look at - and let you know where you stand, as well as giving you some tasks to boost your score to where you need it to be, if it's too low.  Don't talk yourself out of even applying for a home loan; instead, get a professional's opinion about your purchasing power and their help in getting yourself ready to buy.

The other big to-do list item is saving up  "cash to close" - the money you need for your down payment and closing costs.  Again, work with a real estate broker or agent and the mortgage broker or professional - local to your area - to help you figure out about what your target savings amount needs to be. Then, get started going through your last month's bank account statements to see where you can eliminate expenses and direct those funds into savings, automatically and every paycheck, ideally. 

I suggest setting up a new savings account that you nickname "Home" or whatever gets (and keeps!) you inspired to stockpile your cash there.

5.  Owners: Pay your property taxes.  Coming out of the recession, many a cash-crunched homeowner has held onto their homes by the hair on their chinny-chin-chin, through job losses, reduced income and rising adjustable mortgage payments. There's a major contingent who have been able to keep their mortgage current, but have fallen behind on their property taxes.  Though many states will not foreclose on a home until the taxes are anywhere from 2-5 years delinquent, if you've fallen behind on your taxes and are starting to get your financial footing back under you, 2011 would be a great year to get current.  I know this is tough, because you'll have to start paying your current taxes, plus chip away at the back taxes, but it is possible - just treat it like any other financial project and start devoting whatever you can to the delinquent taxes on a monthly basis.  Also, make sure you have budgeted a monthly savings amount to cover your current taxes, even if you only pay them twice a year, to avoid falling further behind. 

Two things that can help:  first, make sure you're not overpaying. Check the assessed value of your home, as it appears on your tax bill or on your county tax assessor's website.  Then, visit Trulia or similiar site and search by your address, and find the recent comparable homes that have sold in your area. If they are selling for significantly lower than your home's assessed value, dispute the value with the tax assessor.  Most of them offer a dispute form on their websites, and simply require that you tell them what you believe to be the new, lower value of your home and offer them the addresses of recent sales that back your estimated value up.

Second, most tax assessors and/or collectors do offer a long-term payment plan for delinquent taxes. Visit their website or give them a ring - many times, you'll be required to make a down payment of, say, 10% of what you owe, but then can make low, monthly payments for up to several years to get rid of your arrearages.
By Tara-Nicholle Nelson | Broker in San Francisco, CA

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Field Guide for first time home buyers

The American dream of home ownership is a real possibility for everyone. But for too many people, the dream of home ownership remains just that – a dream, and the reality of owning their own home never seems to materialize. The process of buying a home can seem complicated. But with a little bit of learning and a lot of planning, one should be able to hold the keys to their own home. While there are several books and websites that can help cut through the clutter of the mortgage maze, these nine steps from HUD.gov explain the home buying process in a nutshell.

1.       Figure out how much you can afford
2.       Know your rights
3.       Shop for a loan
4.       Learn about home buying programs
5.       Shop for a home
6.       Make an offer
7.       Get a home inspection
8.       Shop for homeowners insurance
9.       Sign papers

Before shopping for a home, some of the key elements to decide are budget, type of home, location, availability of down payment funds, type and length of loan, schooling district, taxes, insurance and other expenses.

In 1934, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) was created to ensure that home ownership becomes easier and affordable for everyone. Since then, the HUD’s Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has helped millions of Americans unlock the door of homeownership.

According to the FHA, most people can afford to budget 29% of their gross monthly income to housing expenses, depending on total debt. Buyers with no debt can budget as much as 41% of monthly income to housing. Determining affordability must be the starting point for every home buyer. This can be quickly and accurately accomplished by utilizing one of free mortgage payment calculators that are available on many real estate websites. These calculators can provide realistic monthly principal and interest payments based on income, debt, down payment, interest rate, length of loan and a home’s selling price.

Buying a HUD-owned home can be one of the easiest paths to home ownership for first time buyers. HUD owns homes in many communities throughout the U.S., and it offers attractive and economical terms. There are no negotiations between the buyer and seller when you buy a HUD Home. This can be a real advantage. There’s no haggling about price–everything is spelled out in black and white. What’s more, your offer is responded to promptly, and if it’s accepted, closing on the home usually will occur within 30-60 days.

Many real estate brokers are happy to sell HUD Homes. All you need to do is to call a few brokers who work in the area you’re interested in and find someone that’s willing and experienced. Some brokers specifically advertise their desire to sell HUD Homes in the real estate sections of newspapers.

In most instances, agents get their sales commission from the home seller and not the buyer. When you buy a HUD Home, HUD will pay the broker’s commission.

There are many other ways and paths for home ownership besides HUD owned homes. Here are a few resources which can be used as guides: